Variações de vieses cognitivos em situações-problema envolvendo incerteza: uma análise de diferenças entre grupos

Romero Galvao Maia; Sintria Labres  Lautert

doi:10.5565/rev/qpsicologia.1725

Variations of cognitive biases in problem situations involving uncertainty: an analysis of differences between groups

Authors

Romero Galvao Maia Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6246-3965
Sintria Labres Lautert Universidade Federal de Pernambuco https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7732-0999

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Abstract

This study investigates whether biases present in informal statistical cognition are similar between professionals working at the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and a non-randomized comparison group in the population. Five hundred and twelve participants answered an online questionnaire with registration items and situations involving probability, risk, uncertainty, or ambivalence. Three hundred thirty cases returned the questionnaire with more than 50% of the items answered, being 85 linked to the IBGE and 245 from the non-casual comparison group. The results revealed that the biases are not distributed in a generalized way, as predicted in the literature, the variable “currently working with statistics” may have significantly less bias. However, the low associated value of R² suggests further investigations considering random clusters.

Keywords

Decision Making, Heuristics, Uncertainty, Bias

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Author Biographies

Romero Galvao Maia, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

Analista e Gestor de Pesquisas do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Mestre em Psicologia Cognitiva (UFPE). Especialista em Indicadores Sociais (UFMG).

Sintria Labres Lautert, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco

Professora Associada III do Dpt. de Psicologia da UFPE. Coordenadora do Núcleo de Pesquisa em Psicologia da Educação Matemática (NUPPEM). Doutora em Psicologia Cognitiva (UFPE). Pós-doutora pelo Poincaré Institute for Mathematics Education da Tutfs Univ. (Massachusetts/EUA).